HDB has launched a property listing portal (HDB Flat Portal), allowing owners and property agents to list HDB flats for sale. Initially, this service will be offered free of charge.
This topic is particularly significant for Singaporeans, as the majority reside in HDB flats, which often represent the largest asset in a household. Additionally, this development could impact private listing platforms, real estate agents, sellers and buyers alike. Let’s explore this further.
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Why is HDB intervening in resale listings?
That’s the first question we should ask. I believe it arose because of the ridiculously high asking prices for HDB flats. Just last week, for example, two HDB flats were listed for $2 million each, while most of us are still coming to terms with flats selling for $1 million.
The concern here is that the resale market is fostering speculative behaviors. When such high-priced listings are seen, it may encourage others to raise their selling prices as well, which then impacts affordability.
HDB has no control over these listings since they are posted on private portals. However, by creating its own portal, HDB can remove listings that are deemed unrealistic.
Additionally, there are new rules in place: sellers must register their intent to sell, and buyers must have a valid HDB Flat Eligibility (HFE) letter to contact sellers. This helps weed out those who just want to ‘test’ the market with high prices.
Essentially, the HDB Flat Portal is meant to prevent distortions in the resale prices of HDB flats.
Would the HDB Flat Portal impact property listing portals like PropertyGuru?
PropertyGuru is the largest among several property listing platforms in Singapore, where only real estate agents can post listings, and there are associated fees. Specifically, it costs at least $1,425.72 per year to post up to five concurrent listings.
So, the question is whether PropertyGuru could lose these HDB flat listings because it is free to list on the HDB Flat Portal?
It remains to be seen, as free listing alone isn’t necessarily a decisive factor. Platforms like Carousell and Ohmyhome also offer free listings but haven’t significantly eroded PropertyGuru’s market share over the years.
This resilience can be attributed to PropertyGuru’s network effect and strong brand recall. In a two-sided market that brings together buyers and sellers, the presence of more buyers naturally attracts more sellers. The brand is so entrenched in the minds of consumers — think ‘buy property? check PropertyGuru’ — that it continues to draw the majority of buyers and sellers, despite the associated costs.
Remarkably, 90% of traffic to PropertyGuru.com is organic, not driven by paid advertising, highlighting its dominant market presence, which is 5.7 times larger than its nearest competitor. Thus, while the HDB Flat Portal offers a free service, PropertyGuru’s established market leadership and brand strength may continue to attract users willing to pay for its advantages.
Some might argue that the HDB Flat Portal, being a government-led initiative, could leverage a larger ‘marketing reach’ than smaller private platforms. The government endorsement inherently establishes trust, and it doesn’t preclude agents from posting listings on both the HDB Flat Portal and PropertyGuru simultaneously.
Agents who are particularly cost-conscious and primarily deal in HDB transactions might opt to move away from PropertyGuru, but those involved in private property transactions would likely continue to use PropertyGuru for its broad reach within that market. Additionally, rentals represent another revenue stream that PropertyGuru can continue to capitalize on.
Considering these factors, it seems more likely that PropertyGuru may lose some HDB listings, but not all. The platform’s strong market presence, brand recall, and diverse offerings—beyond just HDB sales—should help retain a significant portion of its user base, particularly among those dealing in various segments of the real estate market.
In FY2023, the Singapore marketplace accounted for 56% of PropertyGuru’s total revenue, although there’s no detailed breakdown available for how much revenue comes from HDB versus private properties, or sales versus rentals. One potential impact of the HDB Flat Portal’s introduction could be a decline in the average revenue per agent (ARPA), which stood at S$4,977 in FY23.
If the HDB Flat Portal proves effective in quickly selling units, agents might feel less need to list on PropertyGuru, potentially leading to fewer listings for HDB properties. This shift could allow agents to focus more on private properties, possibly reducing their need for higher-tier memberships or additional advertising credits on PropertyGuru. As a result, ARPA could decrease, posing a challenge to PropertyGuru’s revenue, especially given the significant role the Singapore market plays.
Despite dominating the real estate market platforms in four regional markets—Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand—PropertyGuru remains unprofitable. This financial situation suggests that PropertyGuru might need to increase its prices to achieve sustainability, which could drive more agents to consider alternative platforms that offer “good enough” services at a lower cost.
PropertyGuru’s share price has not done well and has dropped 52% since its SPAC merger in 2022. The introduction of the HDB Flat Portal is not welcome news for PropertyGuru.
Impact on agents, sellers and buyers?
Given the rise of million-dollar HDB flats, there is no doubt that some people are trying to profit by raising prices. This trend is enabled by the lucrative private property markets. It is likely that a group of private property owners who sold their properties at high prices are now downgrading to HDB flats and can ‘overpay’ due to high cash-over-valuations (COV). They are the ones driving up the prices. Given the demand, some sellers aim to capitalize on this opportunity. Agents are happy since their earnings are a percentage of the sale price, and the more aggressive ones might even encourage sellers to list at higher prices.
Of course, this scenario is detrimental for buyers who are budget constrained. They may not have been successful with BTOs and must resort to the resale market, only to encounter escalating prices. This deflates their ambition to own homes and makes their dreams seem further out of reach. This is why I think the government has decided to step in and prevent resale market prices from rising too fast. It is too early to tell whether they will be successful or if more measures are needed.
In the grander scheme of things, it is obvious that the government is not loosening its grip on controlling property prices but rather tightening it further. The Singapore property market remains very resilient.
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