“Within 1km of ACS (Junior).” Every property agent in Singapore knows what that line is worth in a listing. On 10 September, the Ministry of Education (MOE) changed what it means.
From the 2027 Primary 1 registration exercise, for children starting school in 2028, 12 popular primary schools will stop giving priority in Phase 2C to families who live within 1km. Phase 2C is the phase open to all children, including those with no sibling or alumni link to the school. Its places at these 12 schools will be split into two equal halves. One half is balloted among children living within 2km, the other among children living beyond 2km. Nobody in either half gets priority for living closer.
MOE picked these 12 because public housing makes up less than 40% of the homes within 2km of each. At five of them, it is far lower than that.
Within 1km of Raffles Girls’ and Singapore Chinese Girls’, there are no HDB flats at all. So for most families, getting close to one of these five schools has meant buying private.
We wanted to know how much more they paid for it, and whether the new rules put that money at risk.
How Much More Do Parents Pay?
At first glance, a lot. Since September 2021, condos and apartments within 1km of these five schools sold for a median of S$2,296 per square foot (psf). That is 37% more than the median for the rest of Singapore.
But that compares a condo in Bukit Timah with one in Punggol. These homes sit around Bukit Timah, Newton and the Orchard fringe, close to town. Against other prime areas they don’t look expensive at all. Since the start of 2025 they sold for a median of S$2,243 psf, below Orchard (District 9) at S$2,463 psf. So most of that 37% is about where these homes are, not the schools.
To pull the school out, we did a like-for-like comparison. We took 82,266 private condo and apartment sales from September 2021 to September 2026 and compared homes of the same size, floor, tenure and age, sold in the same month and the same postal district, at the same distance from an MRT station and from the CBD. The one difference left was how far each home sat from one of the five schools.
The answer is about 10%. A home within 1km sold for roughly 10% more than a comparable home 2 to 4km away in the same district. On a typical 1,250 sq ft unit at about S$2,240 psf, that is about S$200 psf, or around S$250,000.
The premium differs by school.
What the 1km Priority Has Been Worth
Homes 1 to 2km away sold for about 3% more than comparable homes 2 to 4km away. Within 1km, it was about 10%. So the premium drops by about 7 percentage points once you move into the 1 to 2km ring.
Until now, Singaporean children living within 1km got first call on Phase 2C places, and those 1 to 2km away came second. We think a good part of that 7-point gap is what parents paid for the head start. Some of it is simply being closer to the school.
We also looked for a jump right at the 1km line, comparing homes just inside it with homes just outside. We didn’t find a clear one. It rests on the few projects that sit near the line, and our distances can be off by 100 to 200m, because MOE measures from the school’s boundary while we measure from one map point. A jump of a few percent could easily hide in there.
Which came first is an open question. Did these schools make the neighbourhood, or did the neighbourhood make the schools? Probably both. Well-off families cluster around famous schools, and their children keep those schools in demand. MOE seems to agree. It says some schools have a narrower mix of students that reflects their immediate neighbourhoods, partly because of the distance priority. And it picked these 12 because so few of the homes around them are HDB flats. Our data can’t say which way it runs. But if the two feed each other, the loop won’t break on its own. Someone has to step in to make these schools more diverse.
The premium for homes near these five schools also peaked well before the announcement. It has been 7 to 8% since 2024, down from about 11% in 2021 and 2022. We only measured these five schools, so this says nothing about school premiums elsewhere in Singapore.
What Happens to Prices Now?
Until now, Singaporean children living within 1km had first call on Phase 2C places, and those within 2km came next. From 2027, at these 12 schools, a child living 300m away and one living 1.9km away are in the same ballot. Half the places go to children beyond 2km.
We think it plays out differently at each distance.
Within 1km, homes give up their head start. A condo at the school gate now has the same chance in the ballot as one 1.9km away. The part of the 10% premium that paid for priority is at risk.
Between 1 and 2km, homes gain the most. They now get the same ballot odds as a condo at the school gate, for about a third of the premium. We expect the gap between the two rings to narrow, with homes 1 to 2km away catching up on those within 1km.
Beyond 2km, more children get in, but no home gains in particular. Half the Phase 2C places are now set aside for children living beyond 2km. A flat 2.1km away and one in Punggol have the same chance in that ballot, so the benefit is spread across the whole island. We don’t expect it to lift prices anywhere.
One thing could cut against this. Families within 2km used to have first call on every Phase 2C place, at least 40 at each school. From 2027 they get half, 30 of the minimum 60, plus any places the other track doesn’t fill. Fewer places for nearby families could trim the premium across the whole 2km circle, not just inside 1km.
There are also two things we can’t tell yet. The first ballot under the new rules runs in 2027, so there is no sales data to test. And our five years of sales all come from a rising market. We haven’t seen how this premium behaves when prices fall.
Watch the 1 to 2km Ring
Parents near these five schools have paid about 10% more than for a comparable home nearby, roughly S$250,000 on a typical condo. Homes 1 to 2km away have cost about 3% more. Much of that gap has been the price of a head start in the P1 ballot, and from 2027 the head start is gone.
So the homes to watch are 1 to 2km from these schools. They now get the same ballot odds as a condo at the school gate, for about a third of the premium. We expect that gap to narrow.
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